10 states predicted to have greatest physician surplus in 2030

New York is expected to experience a surplus of 14,875 physicians by 2030, according to a study published in Human Resources for Health.

The study, published Feb. 6, analyzes current and future physician job surplus and shortage trends throughout the U.S. from 2017 to 2030. It used projected changes in age and population size, then the authors created demand and supply models to predict physician shortages in 50 states. Thirteen states were predicted to have a surplus of physicians, while 37 were predicted to have a shortage.

Ten states predicted to have the greatest surplus of physicians by 2030:

1. New York — 14,875
2. Massachusetts — 10,133
3. Ohio — 1,648
4. Connecticut — 1,409
5. Maryland — 1,408
6. Rhode Island — 677
7. Vermont — 673
8. New Jersey — 557
9. Delaware — 334
10. Nebraska — 274

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