The U.S. could see a shortage of up to 64,000 physicians by the end of 2024 and 86,000 by 2036, according to a survey from McKinsey.
McKinsey's survey, published Sept. 10, included 631 physicians surveyed from June to July 2023.
Here are 10 key notes on physician retention and shortages:
1. Of those surveyed, 35% of physicians indicate they are likely to leave their current roles in the next five years. Of these, 60% expect to leave clinical practice entirely.
2. While the aging population is one factor to the physician shortage, it's not the only thing exacerbating the issue.
Among those aged 54–64 likely to leave:
- 59% consider early retirement or exiting the care delivery workforce.
- 13% prefer moving to an administrative role within care delivery.
Among those under 54 likely to leave:
- 37% lean toward early retirement or leaving clinical work.
- 14% prefer administrative roles.
3. There's an increase in physicians wanting to leave their positions — 58% of physicians express a stronger desire to change jobs this year, up from 43% in the prior survey.
4. Physicians are facing an increase in offers to leave their current positions as well – 72% of physicians are approached with alternative job offers at least monthly, and 50% receive such
5. When asked their reasons for leaving, compensation (69%) and family needs/life demands (69%) were the top reasons cited. Additional factors included the demanding nature of work (66%), emotional toll (65%) and physical toll (61%).
6. Schedule control is a critical strategy in reducing burnout. The survey found that 52% of those working more than 60 hours per week report burnout, however, 66% of physicians dissatisfied with their schedules report burnout, highlighting the importance of schedule control.
7. Surveyed physicians cited these key factors for wellbeing
- Ability to take time off (87%).
- Finding coverage when needed (77%).
- Working specific hours of the day (69%).
- Working remotely is important for 38%.
8. Physicians also desire a hand in decision making. More than 60% of physicians expect to have at least consultation or voting rights on major decisions affecting their roles.
9. There is also a rise in nonclinical task burden. Physicians estimate nearly 20% of their clinical time is spent on tasks that could be delegated to nonphysician staff or technology.
10. According to the survey, physicians remain acutely aware of their market value, with frequent recruitment attempts influencing their decisions to stay or leave.